What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my NFL Game Theory Article. In this article I will be outlining my favorite cash and GPP plays, as well as, my fades for each position. This is more of a first look because it is coming out on a Friday and the weekend can always bring change, especially in the Covid-19 era, we continuously have the slate turned upside down on Saturday morning. You can find all of the Karma staff’s cores and all our prop plays through our NFL Premium Package. If you haven’t singed up for MonkeyKnifeFight or PrizePicks, what are you waiting for? I prefer those sites to DFS. I have moved a lot of my cash volume to that site. I focus more on GPPs lineups on the weekend after locking in my cash props for the weekend. If you have yet to make an account, click on the links are use promo code KARMA for a deposit bonus! Now let’s get right into it!
Tilt your mobile device on it’s side for optimal viewing *If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups. Quarterbacks:We have a couple great options to pay up for this weekend. I have found myself paying up for QB more often than I have in years past. The ceiling in the top tier is just miles above anything below them. Last year, I tried to pay down as low as possible. QB fantasy points had such a low standard deviation that it was never worth it to me to pay $1000 more in salary when they were staying within one or two fantasy points of each other. CashI am looking to pay up for both my cash plays this weekend. Unless I choose to move down to Jared Goff to fit someone I really want in my cash line. Kyler Murray has been playing at a historic rate for fantasy QBs. It is not all about is passing upside either, he is averaging 12.7 out of his 31.4 fantasy points on the ground. He would be the RB11 among running backs that have played at least 5 games this season. Murray is becoming the CMC of last year. He was a WR1 and RB1, if you split the two stats. Now Murray is an RB11 and QB17 if you split up the stats. When you add them together you get the QB1. Murray will be going up the Bills, who play man defense a majority of the time. This will lead to a lot more scrambling opportunities for Murray. He has proven to be a much better runner than Lamar Jackson. This should increase his already massive rushing floor. There are no issues playing Murray naked (Without WRs) because of hos rushing upside. You don’t need to force the Deandre Hopkins play either. I am more interested on the Bills passing game than the Cardinals. I am mostly playing Murray to get his rushing upside. Any passing is just bonus. Josh Allen is in the same boat as Murray. They both provide massive rushing upside to create the perfect cash plays each week. I am predicting this game to turn into a potential shootout. I love this game stack. I am fine with playing either guy, if you need the extra $500 pay down to Allen, if you don’t just go up to Murray. He has played 10x better with John Brown this season compared to without him. After starting the season towards the top of the MVP conversation, especially the fantasy MVP conversation. He trailed only Dak Prescott in fantasy points over the first four weeks, averaging 33.8 fantasy points per game and 0.83 fantasy points per drop back. After John Brown went down with an injury in week 5, weeks 5-8 while Brown was out or still not 100%. Allen was QB13 averaging 17.6 fantasy points. It looks like John Brown is healthy again and Allen is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season 39.0. Safe GPPI might end up moving Jared Goff as my cash play of the week, but I am a little nervous at how well Dunlap and Adams were able to apply pressure. This is something the Seahawks have been lacking. Which has led to the worst pass defense in NFL history, in terms of yards. I have no issues moving him into your cash lines, if you want to save some salary, compared to Murray and Allen. Although, we save so much salary at running back this week that you don’t have to, which is one of the main reasons I don’t have him in my cash pool currently. Goff has had his ups and downs like every QB this season. He is averaging 268.1 passing yards per game, while throwing 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has struggled with his completion %, with an adjusted completion % of 77.3%, ranking middle of the pack. Surprisingly, we have seen a flip in his home road splits this season. At home, Goff is averaging; 231.7 yards, one touchdown, and 0.3 interceptions a game. While putting up 13.36 fantasy points per game. Compared to him on the road averaging; 290.0 yards, two touchdowns and one interception per game. While putting up 17.9 fantasy points per game. He has only cracked the top five in a given week because of a 300 yard bonus and a rushing touchdown. Rushing upside has become so vital in fantasy, I have found myself paying up more for the rushing floor in cash. Luckily, he gets the easiest matchup for a QB this season. We could see some decreased ownership after Jimmy G screwed over the chalk a couple weeks ago. People tend to carry their bias too much in DFS. Seattle is allowing 9.48 fantasy points above average to QBs this season, according to our Team Matchups page. Seattle continues to get into shootouts every week, with their awful defense. With Goff’s streak of bad play, we could see this not turn into a shootout, similar to what happened into the 49ers game. With the addition of Dunlap and Adams applying pressure it could end up getting to Goff, causes troubles. Low Owned GPPBaker Mayfield has the perfect opportunity to show the world why he was the number one pick in the 2018 draft. He has lost his top option, Odell Beckham Jr, to an ACL tear. Baker hasn’t shown much with Odell out, last game he only had 7.8 fantasy points and he only is averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game on the season. Which is one of the worst among QBs this season. People aren’t going to want to play Baker, but he is my favorite GPP play of the slate. He is coming in at a projected 3% ownership and we might get him less than that. Houston is the worst defense in the league against QBs. Not for fantasy, while they are giving up the 29th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, but just the performances. Houston is giving up a season high rating for QBs of 120, this is higher than MVP candidates like, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Maholmes. They even let Jake Luton go for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. They are allowing a league low 0.2 interceptions a game, 69.2% completion percentage, 256.3 passing yards per game, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and only a sack 6% of the time. Baker should have an easy time picking apart this defense, just like every other QB they have faced this season. Fade:I can’t believe I am putting Russell Wilson in my fade category, but here we are. THIS IS ONLY IF CARSON IS OUT. He has not practice all week, so I might have to more him into more of a GPP play. We also have Murray, Allen, and Aaron Rodgers to pay up for. Russ becomes the odd man out of these four guys to pay up for. I am playing all three of those guys before Russ and it has nothing to do with his bad game last week. He was also going to be a fade for me last week, if Carson was ruled in. If Chris Carson is ruled out again, I am moving my fade to Jake Luton. PLEASE DON’T CHASE. I mentioned how bad Houston’s defense is in Baker’s section. Running Backs:CashWith Christian McCaffrey officially ruled out, we can go all in on Mike Davis. For some reason DraftKings decided to price Davis down to $4000, when CMC was back for one week, with high injury risk. This is a play you shouldn’t overthink. The matchup is tough for running backs, but that doesn’t matter with his high receptions floor. With Christian McCaffrey out during weeks 3-8, Davis was the RB4, averaging 17.65 fantasy points per game. He was second in targets and receptions, only trailing Alvin Kamara. He was even 13th in the league among WRs and RBs in receptions during this time. He averaged five receptions and 28 yards per game. That puts him at 7.8 fantasy points just from receiving upside outside of touchdowns. We have been happy with 7.8 fantasy points from a running back at $4000 and that is just from receiving minus touchdowns. The one downside of Davis is the lack of opportunity to receive a 100 yard bonus this week, but at $4000 it doesn’t matter. Just don’t over think this amazing play. He might be 100% owned in cash this week. Aaron Jones has been one of the top backs in the league this season. What seemed like unsustainable touchdown upside has continued this season. This is what happens when the Packers have a high-powered offense, but Rodgers only trusts a couple guys on his team. Jones gets the Jaguars that have been awful against running backs this season. They are giving up the 27th most fantasy points to running backs this season, and Jones comes in as the third best runningback for fantasy on the season, averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game. According to the Team Matchups Page the Jaguars are allowing 10.48 more fantasy points than the average, which ranks second. Jacksonville is around the middle of the pack, allowing 1.42 yards before contact, while the Packers only average 1.39 yards before first contact. Where Jones makes a majority of his impact is in the red zone, Jones leads all RBs in red zone targets, while only playing six games, he also ranks top 10 in carries in the red zone with 3.0 per game. Jacksonville is giving up the fourth most carries inside the 5 this season with 18, and allowing 56% of those carries to turn into touchdowns. As long as Rodgers doesn’t throw a PA on the one, Jones should be instore for huge touchdown upside. Safe GPPDuke Johnson is way too cheap if David Johnson gets ruled out. I am not sure if I want to pay down for both running backs in cash, but Johnson is in a great spot to hit value. I wouldn’t touch him over Davis unless you are making a milly lineup. Both provide great value if you are looking to pay up for WRs in GPPs. I just don’t see myself fading Jones in cash, because he could easily break the slate, especially with Weather concerns. The Browns have been decent against running backs this season, allowing 0.43 less fantasy points than the average opponent to running backs. It is the passing catching upside from Johnson that I like. Duke has never taken a workhorse role and has mainly been a pass catching back, if the Texans find themselves down in this game and the pressure gets to Watson, look for several dump offs to Johnson. He is basically a worse version of the starter, David Johnson. Low Owned GPPChase Edmonds is coming off an amazing game, even though the stats don’t show a huge game from him. He is also coming in at a projected 6.5% ownership, which would probably be higher if saw the end zone last week. That is the problem playing alongside Murray, he steals a lot of rushing touchdowns. Last week we saw Edmonds on the field for 66 of the 69 offensive snaps for the Cardinals, turning into a true workhorse back. Part of me wants to play him in cash this week as a low owned pivot. I did that with Drew Lock last week and it paid off. Don’t be afraid to get a little weird in one or two spots to really separate yourself from the chalk. NFL DFS is so chalky these days, I hate playing cash games sometimes. Edmonds ran a route on on 73% of Murray’s drop backs last week. I believe that Edmonds is the better back than Drake and he has the perfect opportunity to show it this weekend. He touched the ball 28 times last week, which was tied for first with Christian McCaffrey. They fed Edmonds 25 rushing attempts in a game he wasn’t playing well, only accumulating only 70 rushing yards. He gets a much easier matchup against a spotty Buffalo run defense. He should be able to find the end zone in a potential shootout. As long as, Drake doesn’t play he is one of my favorite plays of the week. I would have him locked into my cash line if it wasn’t for Davis being $4000. Fade:With Michael Thomas back, Alvin Kamara is too over priced for me. We got to take advantage of a Saints offense lacking a majority of play makers early on in the season. With Brees’ aversion to passing downfield, that gave Kamara a high target floor. This made him one of the best fantasy backs in the league. With Thomas and Sanders healthy now, he will take a backseat for receptions making him a bad play at his price. He can still hit value, but you are relying on a couple touchdowns, which he can do, just highly unlikely to happen. There are just better plays at that price. Wide Receivers:CashDavante Adams has been locked in every game this season. Adams has been fully healthy in only five games this season. He has 10+ targets in every one of those games. He has 64 targets, 50 receptions, 639 yards, 8 touchdowns, 170.9 fantasy points, 3.42 points per touch, and 0.57 fantasy points per snap. That is 34.18 fantasy points per game, ranking first among all positions, even QB. Only two other WRs broke 100 fantasy points during that 5 game stretch and Adams had 170 fantasy points. Adams is running a route on 95% of Rodgers drop backs, and has a 35% target share. He’s catching 40% of Rodgers completions, accounting for 42% of Rodgers passing yards, and accounting for 63% of the passing touchdowns, in the five full games he played this season. This passing offense is basically only Davante Adams. These numbers seem unsustainable, but in an offense that is this high-powered, he is one of the only guys Rodgers actually trusts. I feel like he is playing madden and just force feeding one guy all game, like I am sure we all do. He is basically putting up video game numbers and I love it. The only thing stopping him is the potential bad weather, but we all know Rodgers is used to the snow, so he should have no issues. Depending how bad the snow is or how long it lasts, it could make for more favorable conditions for the offensive players. Adams gets one of the easiest matchups of the week, against Sydney Jones who is allowing 1.83 yards per route covered and a target on 20% of his routes covered, according to the WR/CB matchup chart. Keenan Allen has really prospered with Justin Herbert as his QB this season. He finally has an extremely valuable QB for fantasy. There was worry coming into the season, with Tyrod as his QB, he wasn’t going to provide much value. This was obvious, Taylor was never a guy that was going to light up the stat sheet with 300 yard games. Herbert is currently third in the league in passing yards per game, only behind Russ and Dak. It appears Herbert has two reads, throw it deep or throw it to Allen darting across the field for an easy 10 yard gain. Allen is currently 5th in the league in WR fantasy points per game with 19.9, he has never scored under 10 since Herbert took over the starting QB job. He is third in the league in targets this season, second in receptions, 10th in yards, he has a 76.5% catch %, with an aDOT of 8.09 yards, and 4.66 yards after reception. As we can see, Allen is more of a volume guy, than a big play maker. According to Karma’s WR/CB matchup chart, Allen also has one of the easier matchups of the week. He should be lined up against Nik Needham a majority of the game, who is allowing 1.31 yards per route covered, a target on 15% of his routes covered, and 0.24 fantasy points per route. Which is low because he has yet to allow a touchdown. Safe GPPJosh Reynolds has emerged as a fantasy sleeper the past couple weeks. We get him in an amazing spot against the Seahawks. Seattle gives up 24.18 more fantasy points than average to WRs. This means there a lot of fantasy points to be had for the Rams. Reynolds as only $3,500 and will probably end up in my cash line by Sunday as the community gains interest in him. Reynolds has six straight games with 4+ targets and 8+ in back-to-back games. If Reynolds is able to get 8+ targets against the Seahawks he will be instore for a huge game. Rams should be either losing this game or have the game turn into a shootout leading to a lot of opportunities for Reynolds. They like to get the TEs involved but this is a WR game for the Rams. Kupp and Woods are also amazing Safe GPP plays, but I went with the cheap option. Low Owned GPPJarvis Landry is a great pairing with Baker as a low owned QB/WR stack. Landry is the main guy in Cleveland without OBJ. Houston has not been able to defend against passers all season and Landry should be able to run the slot to find mismatches all game. Landry was fed 11 targets last week against the Raiders in really bad weather. There is a chance the weather is bad again this weekend, which could lead to another 10+ low aDOT target week. Landry will be the safety valve for Baker sort of like Allen is for Herbert. If Baker can’t take shots downfield look for Landry to have a huge game. Fade:Tyler Boyd has been fantastic this year, but I don’t trust him in the matchup against the best defense in the league in Pittsburgh. “Blitzburgh” should have their way with this really bad line for the Bengals. As long as Boyd doesn’t get some garbage time yards or touchdowns he will have a rough game. Pittsburgh played down to their competition last week, but don’t use that as fuel saying if Gilbert can do well Burrow will too. Pitt overlooked Dallas like they always overlooked easy opponents. I am expecting Pitt to go back to their ways and limit all of the Bengals offense. The post Joey’s NFL DFS Game Theory for Draftkings – Week 10 appeared first on DFS Karma. via DFS Karma https://www.dfskarma.com/football/joeys-nfl-dfs-game-theory-for-draftkings-week-10/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet
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The most important note for StatHero is their scoring system. It’s different from what you’re likely used to, and we need to note what the most important aspects are. Quarterbacks are far and away the most important position, specifically passing yards. They get 0.05 fantasy points for every 1 passing yard compared to only 0.1 fantasy points per 1 rushing or receiving yard. For instance, a quarterback would receive 15 fantasy points for 300 yards passing. He would need 3.75 passing touchdowns to reach that. Running backs and receivers would need 1,50 yards to hit that number. They would need 2.5 touchdowns to score 15 fantasy points. Tight ends are another major part of their scoring. They will receive 1.5 fantasy points per reception while running backs and wide receivers only receive 1 fantasy point per reception. With StatHero’s current scoring system, it could be a key to stack a team with a dominant quarterback and tight end pairing to go along with the other options on the offense. The final scoring that could make or break your lineup is the distance bonus. Quarterbacks receive a slightly smaller bonus for long passing touchdowns, while running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends get a bit more of a bonus for touchdowns. Ultimately, you want touchdowns to come from 10+ yards out, which is the distance the bonus’ starts at. If you want access to our cores, Discord, and Final Thoughts, click here. Seattle SeahawksRussell Wilson/D.K. Metcalf/Tyler LockettIt’s difficult to move off of the Seattle Seahawks on StatHero whenever they’re on the slate. Through 8 games, Wilson has thrown for 2,541 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 297 pass attempts. He’s thrown for 2+ touchdowns in every game this season, including a pair of games with 5 touchdowns. He gets an interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Rams this weekend. They’re only allowing 197.1 passing yards per game. They’re also allowed only 9 passing touchdowns while holding their opponents to only 6.0 adjusted yards per attempt. Still, the Seahawks are +2 point underdogs in a game set at 54.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 26.3 points this weekend. Metcalf’s played a position-high 96.3% of the offensive snaps for Seattle this season. He’s posted 43 receptions for 788 yards and 8 touchdowns on 68 targets through 8 games. He also owns 4+ receptions and 90+ yards in 7 of his 8 contests. Metcalf’s turned 9 red zone targets into 6 receptions for 37 yards and 4 touchdowns. He owns 37.9% of Seattle’s air yards, recording 966 air yards with a 14.2 aDOT. Metcalf has been an extremely consistent option for Seattle, and he will continue to be peppered with targets once again this week. Lockett is the other star of the passing game, playing 93.3% of the offensive snaps this season. He’s seen a team-high 70 targets, posting 53 receptions for 615 yards and 7 touchdowns. Lockett has found the majority of his success in a pair of games, though, posting 24 receptions for 300 yards and 6 touchdowns on 33 targets against the Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. He’s seen a team-high 10 red zone targets, recording 8 receptions for 35 yards and 5 touchdowns. Lockett boasts 756 air yards with a 10.8 aDOT, accounting for 29.9% of Seattle’s air yards this season. Along with Wilson and Metcalf, he’s a clear must-start option in this stack.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin) The post NFL DFS – Bales’ Favorite StatHero Stack for Week 10 appeared first on DFS Karma. via DFS Karma https://www.dfskarma.com/football/nfl-dfs-bales-favorite-stathero-stack-for-week-10/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet Week 18 Pool Champions List 2020: Only Those Who Know Pool In SolutionTipster Appear Here11/13/2020 SolutionTipster Hall Of Fame Update Special thanks to all who strive to post their analysis on weekly basis for our collective use in this website. [...] The post Week 18 Pool Champions List 2020: Only Those Who Know Pool In SolutionTipster Appear Here appeared first on SolutionTipster. via SolutionTipster https://www.solutiontipster.com/2020/11/week-18-pool-champions-list-2020-only-those-who-know-pool-in-solutiontipster-appear-here/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet Sign up here for access to the NFL Projections Portal, Final Thoughts, and all staff core plays for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, and SuperDraft as well as prop plays from MonkeyKnifeFight and PrizePicks! Follow Sam on Twitter @sscherman IntroThere are certain types of contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel (as well as other Daily Fantasy Sites) where ownership, across any sport, is not something to focus on, i.e. head to heads, double ups, 50/50s, or a contest with less than 20 entrants; however, when playing large field GPP tournaments and gunning for that $1 million prize, or even just a top 10 in a contest of 100k+ entrants, ownership is IMPERATIVE when constructing your rosters. While I would never make the argument that ownership is everything, or the most important aspect of playing/winning DFS, I think many more people than we think overlook it and fall into groupthink more often than they should as a fear of “a cheap guy going off” or playing someone at 50% or more projected ownership to ensure not getting dusted by the field. Again, in cash games or very small field tournaments, I get that idea, as playing an obvious backup RB who’s locked into an every down roll and 20+ touches and is the min $4,000 on DraftKings and is going to be owned by 45 of 50 players in a tournament… yes, I would probably play him since you have just about 0% chance of cashing if he goes off. This article will be focused around listing the Top 10 projected owned guys by each position on both DraftKings and FanDuel and weighing what chalk I will be eating, my general thoughts on the slate, and listing my leverage/pivots by position as to where we can differentiate ourselves on the main slate. The last thought to keep in mind, and perhaps the most important, is being contrarian does not mean making a lineup of 9 guys less than 5% owned… that is not by any means optimal and not a +EV strategy in any DFS sport. What I like to do each and every week is use a strategy by one of the pioneers of DFS Football, Adam Levitan (check out their stuff at EstablishTheRun because their team is very, very sharp), which is figure out my ACO, or “Average Cumulative Ownership,” on all my tournament teams. To calculate that is simple, add up all 9 players ownership, and divide by 9 and look to target somewhere in the range of 9-16% (16% is the absolute max that I will have) for your whole team. If CMC is going to be 35% owned, that doesn’t mean an auto fade, it just means you have to differentiate elsewhere because his ceiling is insane and he’s not someone to fade just because “he’s chalk.” That’s enough rambling, let’s get to the picks! Below is just a quick table I made of the Top 10 projected, by ownership, plays by each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel. I have listed next to their name as well what is called “Ownership Value,” or OWNV, which is just something interesting to look at that divides a players projected points by their projected ownership to see where you can differentiate in GPPs to find players that may be something like sub 5% owned but projected to be a Top 10 or Top 15 scoring player on the slate. Week 9 Slate ReviewWeek 9 certainly felt like I was on the right games, even the right stacks in my opinion, but a god awful game from Russ (at least in the turnover department), once again guessing wrong on the Lockett/Metcalf ball out game, and Justin Jackson getting hurt in WARMUPS really sunk my cash teams. In tournaments, I felt very confident about CMC’s returning role and he did smash, but I got slammed as Edmonds had a terrible game despite all the Cardinals points, Derrick Henry didn’t do much, and James Robinson had pretty much a floor game. In the case of WRs, it was an interesting slate as the NFL once again proved that while matchups can definitely be meaningful, it is never anything close to an “end all, be all” as Lockett had an elite matchup away from Tre’ White but DK Metcalf still dominated, I thought Justin Jefferson was in a great spot along with Thielen but the game ended up being the Dalvin Cook show again, which is not surprising at this point. I think this upcoming week is VERY interesting as there are a few RBs (coming up) who should be insane chalk, a few WRs that should be far more owned than most, and it creates some great leverage spots where if the chalk were to fail (which happens often), you could find yourself with an advantage over 30-40% of the field by pivoting away. QuarterbacksIn general, I think the position that I’m most willing to eat the chalk is at QB. Why? For the most part, no QB ever reaches insane ownership like CMC or a cheap backup RB who’s named the starter where we’re talking 40% or higher ownership, as most QBs never reach above the 20% mark, or even 15%. As mentioned above with all the value presented to us on both sites, I think there a ton of viable QB options both as a pay up and for value that have similar ceilings that we want to win a tournament. Chalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Kyler Murray/Josh Allen/Russell Wilson – Kyler Murray has truly been something else through the Cardinals’ first 8 games, as he’s averaging just under 40 drop backs per game, but to along with efficient passing and elite WRs in Hopkins/Kirk/old man Larry, he is rushing at an insane rate to the point where I have him projected for 10 or more rush attempts this week against Buffalo. Kyler has officially edged out Russ in points per drop back, ranking 1st for QBs, and is facing a below average Buffalo pass defense that should be faster paced with the Cardinals the 3rd fastest team in the league. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen hasn’t been as elite as he was in his first few games this season, but he’s facing a team that will definitely be scoring and a Cardinals D that has given up over 300 yards of offense in every game this season and over 250 pass yards in 6 of 8 games. Allen has thrown for 300+ yards in 5 of 9 games this season, ranks 3rd in points per drop back, and is right behind Kyler, who has 6 rushing TDs this season as Allen has 5 thus far. Lastly, a poor game for Russ and now the Seahawks have cooled off a little bit from their hot fire start. Russ ranks 2nd among QBs in points per drop back, has already thrown 28 TD passes, and has 300+ yards in 5 of 8 games, and has also shown some serious rushing upside this season, rushing 5-7 times per game at over 7 yards per rush to couple with his elite passing. Favorite Leverage Options: Tom Brady (4.4% on DK, 2.8% on FD)/Deshaun Watson (7.7% on DK, 7.3% on FD) – Coming off a god-awful performance in a marque Sunday Night Football game, no one is going to play Brady. The Panthers corners have been better than expected this season, but they still only rank 21st in Pass DVOA and over their last 4 games have given up nearly 24 fantasy points to QBs. Brady has been more volatile this year than year’s past, but has still thrown 20 TD passes, has dropped back the third most of any QB this season, and I expect a bounce back where he should be able to feed Godwin in the slot and Gronk, as the Panthers have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs over the last 4 weeks. Deshaun maybe isn’t a “low owned” leverage but he I do expect him to be much lower owned than the likes of Russ/Kyler/Allen/Rodgers/Goff. Deshaun is playing at such a high level right now and I think despite a strong defense this year, the Browns still only rank 20th in Pass DVOA and against elite QBs such as Burrow and Dak, they’ve been shredded for 500+ by Dak, and over 300 and 400 from Burrow. Deshaun has thrown for 300+ in half his games this year, and that includes his first few with Bill O’Brien and I think this is a sneaky game that could shoot out with the Texans horrific defense. Running BacksChalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Mike Davis/Aaron Jones/Duke Johnson – I think these 3 RBs will be far and away the highest owned and probably for good reason… even though the Bucs are probably the best or second best rushing defense in the league, Mike Davis is the stone minimum after only one week of CMC being back and now CMC is going to be out again. Pure usage play but Davis is a very tough fade in any format as he still saw 6 targets last week even with limited snaps and CMC back and before he was back he was averaging 5-7 targets per game along with the 3rd most High Value Touches (“HVT”) per game out of all NFL RBs (53 on the season). Aaron Jones is in a smash spot against a Jaguars defense that cannot stop anyone as they’re the worst defense in the league per DVOA and have given up on average 28 fantasy points per game to RBs through their first 8 games this season. Jones has the most Red Zone targets of any RB this season (10), ranks Top 10 in points per touch and points per snap, and is averaging 5.3 targets and 5.8 HVTs per game, good for 5th among all RBs. Lastly, the Duke play doesn’t feel good, but with David Johnson set to miss this is a usage play similar to Mike Davis. After David Johnson got a concussion on the first drive last week, Duke game in and was given 16 rushes, 4 targets (which he caught them all), and the Browns have given up an average of 24 fantasy points to RB this season along with ranking 2nd to last against RB receiving, giving up about 44 receiving yards per game. It’s worth noting, and a smaller sample than top tier running backs, but of his 34 rush attempts this season, Duke has forced a missed tackle on 7, good for 20.6% of his rushes. Favorite Leverage Options: Miles Sanders (11.8% on DK, 12.8% on FD)/Antonio Gibson (4.1% on DK, 3.4% on FD)/D’Andre Swift (6.8% on DK, 5.9% on FD) – I wonder if this will be like Week 2 where Sanders came off an injury and was fully healthy but no one played him in a great matchup. In his 5 games this season, Sanders is averaging 5 targets per game, and while the Giants defense is not a complete dumpster fire, they’re still giving up about 25 fantasy points per game to RBs and in their first meeting with Philly a few weeks ago, didn’t get crushed, but still gave up 96 rush yards in what seemed like a much too close of a game where the Eagles never got out to a lead. Antonio Gibson REALLY has a great matchup this week and it’s interesting to see almost no one talking about him. The Lions are ranked 3rd to last against RB receiving, giving up on average 48 receiving yards to RBs, rank 25th in Rush DVOA, and have given up an insane 35 fantasy points on average to RBs in the full season and 38 points over their last 4 games. I wish Gibson was more involved in the passing game, but he is receiving a majority of the rushes and has the 2nd most forced missed tackles of all RBs on the slate (23), which accounts for 25% of all his rushing attempts. On the other side of the ball, and I probably wouldn’t use them in the same lineup, Swift continues to somewhat see his snap count go up and although barely being above dusty Adrian Peterson, Swift is running a route on 58% of his snaps, and 4.3 targets per game. His rushing upside is very limited as he averages well under 10 per game, but does have 4 rushing TDs on the season, and has been very efficient, ranking 10th of all RBs on the slate in points per snap and 3rd in points per touch to go along with 4.4 HVTs per game (35 total on the season). Wide ReceiversChalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Davante Adams/Stefon Diggs/DeAndre Hopkins/DeVante Parker – Man I’ll keep talking about how insane Adams is despite everyone already knowing how elite of a talent he is right now. 11.2 targets per game this season, 12.1 over his last 4 games, 1st in points per touch among WRs, 2nd in yards per route run (3.26), 1st by a wide margin in PPR points per route, and the Jaguars have given up 400+ yards of passing offense in 4 of their last 5 (388 in the one they didn’t). Diggs has the most WR targets in the NFL, has 20 red zone targets, and 28% of his team’s total targets, and the Cardinals have given up the 5th most points to WRs over the last 4 weeks. Diggs is the clear alpha in this offense and despite an expected shadow from Patrick Peterson, I don’t think he’ll struggle at all and should continue his heavy usage of 10+ targets per game. Hopkins has the same analysis as Diggs in which he has a tough matchup with one of the better CBs in the league in Tre’ White but the Bills actually rank 3rd to last in DVOA against WR1s and I view Hopkins on the same level as Diggs/Adams/Julio/etc where he is more or less matchup proof and should be fed targets regardless. Hopkins has the 5th most total targets of WRs, good for 9.1 per game, and although the target share has dipped a little bit the last few weeks, he should see plenty of volume in a must win for the Cardinals to keep up in their very strong division. Lastly, I don’t have him projected for insane ownership right now (12% or so on both sites), but Parker should be chalk and with their injuries/trades at WR, it’s hard to see him not getting peppered with targets from Tua. With the QB change, there was some initial concern as in the first game versus the Rams, Tua barely threw as the defense carried them but last week in a more competitive environment, Parker saw 7 targets and nearly 33% of the team’s air yards. Parker’s matchup isn’t elite as Casey Heyward is still a tougher CB, but I like the volume here and he seems much too cheap on both sites. Favorite Leverage Options: Will Fuller (6.4% on DK, 7.2% on FD)/Brandin Cooks (6.0% on DK, 5.3% on FD)/Jerry Jeudy (6.8% on DK, 6.9% on FD)/Laviska Shenault Jr. (1.8% on DK, 1.6% on FD) – Will Fuller has surprisingly been out targeted by Brandin Cooks this season and especially in the last 4 weeks, with Fuller averaging 7.5 over his last 4 and Cooks nearly 10, but I like both a lot in this matchup. Cooks has a much tougher matchup with Denzel Ward whereas Fuller should be lined up with Terrance Mitchell, but I like both of them in this game and like stacking both together with Deshaun. The offense is pretty concentrated on these 2 with both playing about 83% of the snaps, both running similar amounts of routes, both with similar target shares, and the duo accounting for 56% of the team’s air yards. The Houston defense stops no one, forcing Watson to be throwing most of the game, and although the Cleveland corners are strong, they can be beaten, as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins shredded them in Week 7, with Boyd going for 11/101/1 and Higgins 5/71/1 and Cleveland is giving up about 7 PPR points above the league average to WRs through their first 8 games of the season. Jerry Jeudy has quickly become one of the two guys that Drew Lock looks to in his first reads, along with Noah Fant. Jeudy is seeing 7.3 targets per game, has 13 red zone targets, and the Raiders rank 28th against WR1s, 29th against WRs, and are the 26th ranked defense against the pass, per DVOA. Despite the Broncos definitely not being a “dominant” offense by any means, Jeudy is definitely a bright spot that I think goes under owned in a great matchup with 31% of the team’s air yards and the 4th ranked WR in total air yards this season. Lastly, definitely more of a punt than anything, Shenault doesn’t need to do a TON to be a solid value play at his price and while he’s not the alpha of the Jaguars offense, he is running a route on the same percentage of snaps as Chark (approx. 67%), and maybe most important this week, DJ Chark should be shadowed by Jaire Alexander, one of the very best shut down CBs in the league this year. Shenault has a low, low floor but at what should be sub 3% ownership, and averaging nearly 5 targets a game, he could be a great cheap owned WR that if he hits value allows you the more expensive pieces. Tight EndsChalk I’ll Eat in GPPs: Dallas Goedert/Noah Fant – The tight end position is always interesting, but this week without Kelce, Ertz is hurt, Mark Andrews not on the slate, it’s hard to say who will really be the “chalk,” but I do expect Goedert so garner some of the most ownership. The Eagles have been crushed by injuries all year, so Goedert represents one of the only reliable options for Wentz and although not horrific against TEs, the Giants still give up on average about 13-14 fantasy points per game to the position. Goedert has only played in 4 games this season but is averaging 5 targets per game and has utterly no competition with Richard Rodgers the only other TE who should be active. The aforementioned Noah Fant feels like an awesome play this week as Albert O went out for the season last week and Fant should see even more targets, adding to his 6.4 targets per game, against the Raiders, who have given up the 7th most fantasy points to TEs over the last 4 weeks. Favorite Leverage Options: Rob Gronkowski (5.7% on DK, 5.0% on FD)/Eric Ebron (2.1% on DK, 2.7% on FD)/Jordan Reed (2.4% on DK, 1.4% on FD) – Gronk has slowly but surely become a solidified part of this offense over the last several weeks, and despite all the weapons the Bucs have, including Antonio Brown now, Gronk has the 6th most total TE targets of all TEs in the league, averaging 5 per game, and has the 2nd most red zone targets (behind Waller), with 16 on the year. It’s also worth mentioning that over the last 4 weeks, the Panthers have given up the 3rd most points to TEs, averaging almost 18 given up per game. Ebron continues to not be peppered with targets but is getting in the end zone and pretty efficient for his price and snap counts. On the season, the Bengals have given up an average of 17 points to the TE position and in the last 4 weeks, they’ve given up an average of 23.4, which is 5 more points than the next worse defense against TEs. Ebron is averaging 5.4 targets per game and has 12 total red zone targets, good for 4th most among TEs. Lastly, and similar to Shenault this is a definite high-risk play, Jordan Reed has only played in 4 games this year but with Kittle out and Dwelley apparently not taking over that role, I like Reed to be involved in this passing game. The Saints have been smoked by TEs this season, giving up the 7th most points to the position, and in his 4 games, Reed average 4.6 targets per game, had 6 red zone targets, and currently ranks 1st at the position in points per touch and 1st in targets per route run (0.37). Final ThoughtsOverall, don’t fade someone just because of ownership and don’t try to make your whole roster contrarian. There’s a ton of value at all positions and I think the most likely route I’ll go is fading the super cheap RBs and maybe the chalk defenses, or only play one cheaper RB in one lineup and pivot elsewhere to not have a chalky lineup(s). I think it always make sense to stack the popular games, this week being ARI/BUF or SEA/LAR, but if playing 3-5 lineups, or even 20, try out a leverage stack. I think many, including myself, get caught up in trying to target games and stacks based on what “SHOULD” happen but rather what “COULD” happen that most of the public won’t target. There’s always an edge as 90+% of DFS players will base stacks off of Vegas totals and good/bad defenses, but always be looking for games with low combined ownership and grabbing pieces of a game that maybe don’t need a QB stack. If a game has a high Vegas total, sure the game can shootout, but not everyone can explode for 30+ fantasy points as there just isn’t enough plays and touchdowns so try to get different while still attacking the fast paced/high scoring matchups. As I always say, you don’t need to make your entire lineup contrarian, just a couple pieces that differentiate you but keep you in that average cumulative ownership range. Good luck this week! The post Sam’s Week 10 NFL Ownership and Leverage Report appeared first on DFS Karma. via DFS Karma https://www.dfskarma.com/football/sams-week-10-nfl-ownership-and-leverage-report/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Bales’ Top Stacks. In this article, I will outline my favorite NFL stacking options for this week. I will not be including the Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night games, although I will be including my favorite StatHero stack at the bottom of the article. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Green Bay PackersAaron Rodgers/Aaron Jones/Davante AdamsRodgers has looked elite throughout the 2020 season. He’s thrown for 2,253 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 280 pass attempts through 8 games. He boasts an elite 8.6% touchdown rate, which is the second-best of his career. Rodgers has scored 23.5+ fantasy points in 6 of his 8 games, and he’s averaging 28.9 fantasy points per game in those contests. He gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are allowing 280 passing yards per game this season. They’re also giving up a league-high 8.8 adjusted yards per game while allowing 17 passing touchdowns. The Green Bay Packers are -13.5 point favorites in a game set at 50 points, giving them the highest implied team total on the slate at 31.8 points. Jones has struggled with injuries in 2020, but he’s a focal point of the Green Bay offense. He’s played 42.4% of the offensive snaps thus far. Through 6 games, he owns 447 yards and 5 touchdowns on 90 carries. He’s also recorded 23 receptions for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns on 33 targets this season. In limited games, Jones has seen 17 red zone carries for 44 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s also turned 9 red zone targets into 4 receptions for 13 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jones gets a plus matchup this week, as the Jaguars are allowing 138.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry in 2020. They’ve also given up 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Regardless of the game script, Jones will be involved in the offense, making him an elite option in a Green Bay stack. Adam’s is another focal point of the offense that has dealt with injuries throughout the season, playing only 62.4% of the offensive snaps thus far. He owns 53 receptions for 675 yards and 8 touchdowns on 69 targets through 6 games. In games that he’s played full snaps, Adams is averaging 34.2 fantasy points per game. He’s seen a league-high 13 red zone targets, posting 11 receptions for 54 yards and 5 touchdowns. Adams has seen 29% of Green Bay’s air yards, totaling 683 air yards with a 9.9 aDOT. He’s posted 30+ fantasy points in 4 of his 6 games, including a pair of games with 45+ fantasy points. Similarly to Jones, Adams will always have a large role in the offense, making him an obvious option to stack with Rodgers.
Los Angeles RamsJared Goff/Cooper Kupp/Robert WoodsGoff’s flashed at times throughout the 2020 season, throwing for 2,145 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 284 pass attempts. He’s only added 40 yards on the ground, although he’s scored a pair of rushing touchdowns. Goff’s posted 28.36 and 31.24 fantasy points earlier this season, although the majority of his fantasy success has been on the road in 2020. He gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who are allowing 362.1 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up 16 passing touchdowns while allowing 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt this season. The Los Angeles Rams are -2 point favorites in a game set at 54.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 28.3 points. Kupp’s played 88.3% of the offensive snaps for Los Angeles this season. He’s turned a team-high 71 targets into 48 receptions for 527 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kupp is also coming off of one of his best games, posting 11 receptions for 110 yards on 20 targets against the Miami Dolphins. He owns only 4 red zone targets, posting 1 reception for 16 yards and 1 touchdown. Keep’s seen 504 air yards with a low 7.1 aDOT. Overall, he boasts 25.9% of Los Angeles’ air yards this season. Kupp gets an elite matchup, and he should continue to be the top option in LA’s passing attack. Despite playing a team-high 90.6% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps, Woods has been a disappointment in 2020. He’s posted 37 receptions for 436 yards and 4 touchdowns on 54 targets. He has added 108 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, though. Woods is also coming off of his best game of the season, posting 28.4 fantasy points against Miami. He’s seen a team-high 7 red zone targets, posting 6 receptions for 38 yards and 2 touchdowns. Woods owns 23% of Los Angeles’ air yards, recording 443 air yards with an 8.2 aDOT on the season.
Washington Football TeamAlex Smith/Antonio Gibson/Terry McLaurinSmith returned this season from a devastating injury and will draw the start with Kyle Allen undergoing season-ending surgery. Smith essentially played one full game, throwing for 325 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions against the New York Giants. The last time he was healthy, he threw for 2,180 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 10 games. Smith gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are allowing 243.9 passing yards per game and 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt. They’ve also given up 17 passing touchdowns this season. The Washington Football Team is a +3.5 point underdog in a game set at 46.5 points. They own an implied team total of 21.5 points. Gibson’s only played 44.6% of Washington’s offensive snaps this season. He owns 391 yards and 5 touchdowns on 90 carries. He also boasts 22 receptions for 182 yards on 26 targets through 8 games. Gibson saw 20 carries for 128 yards and 1 touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys before being limited with an injury last week. He’s Washington’s preferred red zone back, totaling a team-high 16 red zone carries after Peyton Barber started the season in that role. They don’t often throw to their backs in the red zone, though. Detroit struggles against the run, as well, allowing 148.1 rushing yards per game to go along with a league-high 13 rushing touchdowns. They’re allowing 4.8 yards per carry, making Gibson an elite option on this slate. McLaurin leads Washington’s receivers, playing 93.9% of the offensive snaps thus far. He’s performed well with inconsistent quarterback play, posting 50 receptions for 692 yards and 3 touchdowns on 77 targets. He’s also coming off of one of his best games of the season, posting a 7/115/1 line on 8 targets against the New York Giants. McLaurin leads Washington with 8 red zone targets, turning them into 4 receptions for 21 yards. He’s seen 755 air yards with a 9.8 aDOT thus far. More importantly, McLaurin has recorded 45.3% of Washington’s air yards, making him the easiest play on their team.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin) The post NFL DFS (Week 10) – Bales’ Top Stacks appeared first on DFS Karma. via DFS Karma https://www.dfskarma.com/football/nfl-dfs-week-10-bales-top-stacks/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet Football Betting Tips and Tipsters Competition Welcome to Day 14 of the Football Betting Tips Tipsters and Competition for the month of November. Please [...] The post Saturday 14th November; Football Betting Tips And Tipsters Competition appeared first on SolutionTipster. via SolutionTipster https://www.solutiontipster.com/2020/11/saturday-14th-november-football-betting-tips-and-tipsters-competition/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet Team Casino New Member Results - OctoberReading Time: 5 mins Josh Hughes Team Casino has helped over 5,000 people to start casino offers. We thought it would be interesting to understand how members typically get on in their first month completing offers. To do this, we have analysed the results that members, who joined Team Casino in October, submitted into their profit tracker. In this post, we consider:
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Below I will highlight a few of the top plays to target on tonight’s slate. Make sure you click on the link at the end of the article and join us over at DFSKarma. Once you subscribe you will gain access to all of our CFB Core plays and Props. Game Spreads and Totals:Iowa (-3.5) @ Minnesota O/U 58.5 FAU (-9.5) @ FIU O/U 41 East Carolina University @ Cincinnati (-27.5) O/U 55 Top Plays:Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati): FD: 11,500 DK: 9,700Desmond Ridder is by far the best play at QB tonight on this three game slate. Over the last few weeks, Ridder has really took his game to another level by being more of a threat with his legs. Riddder has racked up 8 rushing touchdowns over the last three games. I do not expect him to keep this pace up, in regards to rushing TD’s. However, he is playing really good football right now and should feast vs. ECU tonight. Mohamad Ibrahim (Minnesota): FD: 12,000 DK: 10,500Ibrahim has been on an amazing run to start this season. Ibrahim is averaging over 30 carries per game so far this year and a whopping 190 rush yards per game. Ibrahim also has racked up 10 rushing touchdowns so far this year. Both sites have priced Ibrahim up tonight, and rightfully so. However, DK has given us plenty of value guys tonight, where I think it is quite easy to fit someone like Ibrahim. Ibrahim unquestionably has the highest ceiling and floor of anyone on this slate tonight. I will be locking Ibrahim into my cash lineups tonight. As far as Gpp’s go, I think it is viable to fade Ibrahim and play a Morgan/Bateman stack tonight instead. If Iowa where to load the box and find success stopping/limiting Ibrahim, this should open up great opportunities for Morgan/Bateman and the rest of the passing game to have big days! Tyler Goodson (Iowa): FD: 9,500 DK: 7,200Tyler Goodson has had a really strong start to his season thus far. Goodson has 233 rush yards on the year and 3 touchdowns. Tonight he will be facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 230 rushing yards per game. Goodson has received the majority of the snaps through the first three games of the season, so there is not much concern of him splitting carries with anyone. Goodson has also shown that he has the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. I like Goodson’s price on DK more than I do on FD, but believe he is playable on both sites. Look for Goodson to have a big game tonight vs. this very weak Minnesota run defense. Blake Proehl (East Carolina University) FD: 7,400 DK: 4,100East Carolina will undoubtedly have their hands full tonight with a very stout Cincy defense. However, Proehl’s price, especially on DK, is way to low. Proehl leads this ECU team in targets and reception yards so far this year, and is only second to Snead in receptions. Proehl will be targeted heavily tonight due to ECU having to air it out to keep this game close. ECU will not have much, if any success running the ball, and will look to get their short/intermediate passing game going to fill that void. Proehl will be a core piece of my lineups tonight. I believe he can blow the top off of his price tonight.
Other noticeable targets:QB Javion Posey (FAU); QB Spencer Petras (Iowa); QB Tanner Morgan (Minnesota); WR JJ Holloman (FIU); WR Rashod Bateman (Minnesota); RB Gerrid Doaks (Cincy); RB Malcolm Davidson (FAU); RB BJ Emmons (FAU)
The post Friday Football Frenzy: Top CFB Plays 11/13 appeared first on DFS Karma. via DFS Karma https://www.dfskarma.com/football/friday-football-frenzy-top-cfb-plays-11-13/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet In May 2018, the US Supreme Court Ruling ruled against a federal ban on sports betting, giving states the option to legalize it or not. [...] The post Michigan Sports Betting Registration Just Began: Here’s Important Things To Note appeared first on SolutionTipster. via SolutionTipster https://www.solutiontipster.com/2020/11/michigan-sports-betting/ https://diachibet.com/fb88 https://diachibet.com/fun88 #diachibet, #nhacai, #diachinhacaibet, #nhacaiuytin, #fb88, #fun88, #diachibetcom, #DiaChiBet.Com, #nhàcái, #nhàcáiuytín, #địachỉbet LottoStar first began as a betting company focused on fixed-odds lottery games. 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